Sunday, July 10, 2011

The Fake Bull Market: A Dollar Mirage

July 10, 2011
By Rober Bonomo

The SP 500 hit an apocryphal low of 666 during the financial crisis in March of 2009 from which point it has surged to more than double in price in about two years. This bull market is one of the most robust in US equities history; its only rivals are the end of the roaring 20’s and the late 1990’s.

There probably couldn’t be two more diametrically opposed moments in US history as the to late 1990’s and the post financial crisis period. The late 1990’s were a period of massive innovation, relative peace, budget surpluses and low unemployment. The US military was resting on its laurels after a swift, definitive victory over Saddam Hussein and the once ominous Soviet threat had disappeared, mired in a decade of decay. Microsoft, Yahoo, Oracle, EBay and the like had made advanced technology once again part of the America brand after the 1970’s and 80’s when it seemed Japan would overtake the US as both the world's dominate economy and innovator. But the nineties were a lost decade for the Japanese and saw a serous decline in their economic power relative to the United States. The 1990’s were the culmination of an American century and victory in the Cold War; the long, sustained bull market made sense.  Read More